Hope all you folks don't mind a moment of silence right now....
...that was for all the stuff screaming in my head about what I think lies ahead. If I said it out loud, you would write it off as another lunatic rant.
I disagree with the pessimism comment. Age (experience) and era make a huge difference in how you look at the world. The younger you are, the fewer reasons you have to not be optimistic. But don't mistake my rants for lasting pessimism. I have great hope in eternity--it's just the "purgatory", either here and now or after death, that makes me anxious. And for some folks it won't be purgatory, but just plain hell.
My comment about pessimism is motivated by empirical evidence: when polled about their expectations for the future the general public tends to underestimate how good the future will be.
Furthermore, "how you look at the world" and "how the world actually is" are two completely different things. I have no doubt that how one perceives the world changes with age and experience. I also have no doubt that this perception does not alter the state of the world. Whether or not your perception has become more or less accurate is a separate question. Nonetheless, since people tend to be overly pessimistic with respect to the future, then, absent any other information, I conclude that for any given person, their view of the future is likely too pessimistic.
1. My pessimism about the elections was based on a sound understanding of the available empirical evidence. It's not that I was being pessimistic, it's that the data itself pointed to an outcome that I did not consider good. If tomorrow get a weather report that forecasts rain, it's not overly pessimistic to expect rain. If you wake up every morning and just *expect* it to rain, then you are being over pessimistic. My point here is that, empirically, people tend to be irrationally pessimistic about the future.
2. I am not immune to these effects. It is a perfectly valid and indeed correct response to my pessimism about any future scenario to discount that pessimism by the degree to which you expect me to be irrational about that issue. Absent any other information, you should expect anyone's opinion about the future to be too pessimistic.
5 comments:
You're right. I would have. =P
I will also note that people tend to have a bias towards pessimism with respect to the future. Odds are things will be better than you expect.
I disagree with the pessimism comment. Age (experience) and era make a huge difference in how you look at the world. The younger you are, the fewer reasons you have to not be optimistic. But don't mistake my rants for lasting pessimism. I have great hope in eternity--it's just the "purgatory", either here and now or after death, that makes me anxious. And for some folks it won't be purgatory, but just plain hell.
My comment about pessimism is motivated by empirical evidence: when polled about their expectations for the future the general public tends to underestimate how good the future will be.
Furthermore, "how you look at the world" and "how the world actually is" are two completely different things. I have no doubt that how one perceives the world changes with age and experience. I also have no doubt that this perception does not alter the state of the world. Whether or not your perception has become more or less accurate is a separate question. Nonetheless, since people tend to be overly pessimistic with respect to the future, then, absent any other information, I conclude that for any given person, their view of the future is likely too pessimistic.
This from the guy who told me early last November to prepare for the worst possible outcome in the elections...
Two points:
1. My pessimism about the elections was based on a sound understanding of the available empirical evidence. It's not that I was being pessimistic, it's that the data itself pointed to an outcome that I did not consider good. If tomorrow get a weather report that forecasts rain, it's not overly pessimistic to expect rain. If you wake up every morning and just *expect* it to rain, then you are being over pessimistic. My point here is that, empirically, people tend to be irrationally pessimistic about the future.
2. I am not immune to these effects. It is a perfectly valid and indeed correct response to my pessimism about any future scenario to discount that pessimism by the degree to which you expect me to be irrational about that issue. Absent any other information, you should expect anyone's opinion about the future to be too pessimistic.
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